2024 - the year of elections: why they matter - Over 50 elections Across The world

16th January 2024

As we wave goodbye to 2023 it is a good time to consider that in 2024, a key theme will be democracy with elections due to take place in over 50 countries and with more than 2 billion people entitled to vote.

Where are elections due to take place?
The next 12 months will see elections across every continent. High profile elections will take place in the United States and Russia.

In the Indian subcontinent, elections are scheduled to take place in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Elections in South Africa, Rwanda and Senegal will have implications for the African continent

In Europe, in addition to the European Parliament elections, elections are also due to take place in 8 EU member states whilst a general election must be held here in the United Kingdom by January 2025, meaning an election during 2024 is probable . At the start of this year, the Prime Minister appeared to indicate he won't call an election until the second half of 2024 telling ITV "My working assumption is we'll have a general election in the second half of this year".

Finally, early in 2024, Taiwan will hold Presidential and Legislative elections which are likely to help shape the nature of the island's future relationship with China. This is because the three candidates for President have set out different approaches to Taiwan's relationship with China.

Elections in 2024
Country/Area
Type
Date
Austria
Legislative
30 September
Azerbaijan
Presidential
7 February
Bangladesh
Legislative
7 January
Belarus
Legislative
25 February
Belgium
Legislative
9 June
Croatia
Legislative
30 June
Czech Republic
Legislative
30 September
European Union
Legislative
6-9 June
Finland
Presidential
28 January
India
Legislative
April and May
Indonesia
Presidential and Legislative
14 February
Lithuania
Presidential
12 May
Lithuania
Legislative
13 October
Mexico
Presidential and Legislative
tbc but by 2 June
Pakistan
Legislative
8 February
Portugal
Legislative
10 March
Russia
Presidential
17 March
Rwanda
Presidential and Legislative
15 July
Senegal
Presidential
25 February
Slovakia
Presidential
31 March
South Africa
Legislative
30 June
South Korea
Legislative
10 April
Sri Lanka
Presidential and Legislative
Before September
Taiwan
Presidential and Legislative
13 January
United Kingdom
Legislative
Tbc but by January 2025
United States of America
Presidential and Legislative
5 November

External influences?
A big challenge across a number of countries will be ensuring their 2024 elections are fair and free from external influences with increasing evidence of Russian and Chinese attempts to influence elections. For example, in October 2023, the United States published a U.S. intelligence assessment that found Moscow is using spies, social media and Russian state-run media to erode public faith in the integrity of democratic elections worldwide. According to Reuters:

"Concerted Russian operations between 2020 and 2022 sought to "undermine public confidence in at least 11 elections across nine democracies, including the United States," the report said, adding 17 others were targeted by "less pronounced" efforts. It did not identify any of the other countries."

US intelligence has also identified China as seeking to influence electoral outcomes in the West.

Russian or Chinese influence can be viewed as a particular concern in the elections in the United States, the United Kingdom and across the EU, including the European Parliament elections. This is because there is an interest in both countries undermining democratic processes and promoting instability.

The raft of elections during the coming year are also likely to be a test for how societies are able to deal with the impact of artificial intelligence and its potential for generating and disseminating misinformation in the context of electoral outcomes.

A recent Sky News article focussed on concerns about so-called "deepfakes" where high-profile figures are digitally cloned in realistic videos adding that:

"US President Joe Biden, possible opponent Donald Trump, and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy have repeatedly fallen victim to such clips, while Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer's voice was cloned for nefarious purposes."

The potential for rapidly developing artificial intelligence or use of social media to influence electoral outcomes will continue to be a concern.

Why do these elections matter?
Given the number of elections taking place this year, a further question might be why they all matter?

The answer is that many of these elections will not just have domestic impacts within each host country but will also have potential geopolitical impacts. An example of the way in which geopolitics has impacted Scotland during this Session of Parliament is the increased energy and food prices as a result of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. This was previously considered in the Key Issues for Session 6 - 2023 update.

Given it is all but certain that Vladimir Putin will once again “win” the Russian Presidency, the illegal invasion and war against Ukraine is likely to continue. Until now Ukraine has received military and economic support from across the world. The biggest supporter has been the United States. However, a change in President could impact that support. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives has already expressed doubt about continued support for Ukraine and a new Republican President may seek to reduce support to Ukraine, particularly if there is a return of President Donald Trump.

The result of the US Presidential election will have other geopolitical impacts including on how the United States relationship with China moves forward. And the state of China’s relationship with the United States could influence how China’s relationship with Taiwan develops. Ahead of the Taiwanese elections in early January, it has been reported that China is seeking to influence that election and secure success for China friendly candidates. According to Reuters:

“Taiwan officials have repeatedly warned in recent months that Beijing is trying new methods to interfere in the elections and get electors to vote for pro-China candidates. They have included trade sanctions, exchange activities with Taiwan politicians and military moves.

Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its own and has increased military and political pressure to force the island to accept its sovereignty, frames the elections as a choice between “peace and war”, calling the DPP dangerous separatists and urging Taiwanese to make the “right choice”.”

Elsewhere in the world, the elections scheduled throughout the Indian sub-continent could impact relationships across a region. A recent Politico article summarised the potential geopolitical impact:

“Both Pakistan and India are heading into contentious elections in which the winners could reshape international relations, altering dynamics in the strategic Indo-Pacific region, where, like Africa, the U.S. and its allies hope to bolster ties as a bulwark against Chinese and Russian influence. distrust.”

The parliamentary elections in South Africa may be significant in presenting a real challenge to the continued rule of the African National Congress (ANC) which has won every election since the end of apartheid. According to a recent article in the Financial Times, the ANC’s grip on power may be waning with younger voters turning their back on the party due to a shrinking economy and fewer opportunities.

Closer to home, there will be elections across a number of EU member states along with European Parliament elections in June. These elections will influence the policy direction of the EU both internally but also with regards to future enlargement, the approach to Ukraine and also the future relationship with the United Kingdom.

The elections across the world will not just have geopolitical impacts. They may also impact on global challenges such as migration and tackling climate change and biodiversity loss.

Conclusion
This blog is not an attempt to make predictions about the outcomes of the plethora of elections which will take place across the world during 2024. Instead, it seeks to highlight the many electoral events due to take place and set out why these elections matter.

Iain McIver, SPICe Research

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